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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nProf. Musto, after one year, can we speak of improvement?<\/strong> Is the stability of the deformation source reassuring?<\/strong> How do we explain that today earthquakes are sometimes more energetic than during the 1982\u201384 crisis?<\/strong> Can we expect new sudden accelerations in uplift?<\/strong> What is the mechanism behind Phlegraean seismicity?<\/strong> In conclusion, what would you like to say to our readers?<\/strong> One year after the March 13, 2025 earthquake (duration magnitude 4.6), which struck the Phlegraean area with particularly strong effects in Bagnoli, the system shows less accelerated dynamics, yet is far from exhausted. Ground uplift\u2014 which in the weeks preceding the event reached rates on the order of 3 cm per month\u2014has gradually decreased to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5893"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5893"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5893\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5898,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5893\/revisions\/5898"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
We are in a phase of uplift at a reduced rate. This has occurred several times in recent years, sometimes lasting for months, alternating with short periods of higher deformation rates and seismicity. However, the bradyseismic process is still fully active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fact that the geometry of the deformation remains unchanged over time suggests that the source has not shifted. But caution is needed: geometric stability does not equate to energetic stability. The system continues to accumulate and release energy in a non-linear manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is linked to exceeding the maximum deformation levels recorded during that crisis, according to a model described by Professor De Natale (former Director of the Vesuvius Observatory) as early as 2017. When the system surpasses certain thresholds, stress in the rocks increases and, consequently, the likelihood of more frequent and higher-magnitude events rises. This is consistent with recent models describing a non-linear response of the rock medium as deformation increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/britishdailynews.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/9f7eda38-70d6-435d-a2d3-68fa1fb348e8-1024x768.jpg\")
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In the past, rapid changes have occurred\u2014even over just a few days\u2014associated with energetic seismic swarms. Over the past twelve months, we have not observed such dynamics. An interesting aspect is that phases with higher velocity seem to be shorter in duration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We are dealing with volcano-tectonic seismicity. Differential uplift\u2014maximum in the central area and lower toward the edges\u2014generates shear stress in the rocks. When this exceeds the strength of the medium, fractures occur, and thus earthquakes. It is not magma directly generating the shocks, but the mechanical response of the rocks to deformation. The main seismogenic areas remain well defined: Solfatara\u2013Pisciarelli\u2013Astroni, La Pietra\u2013Bagnoli, Cigliano\u2013Gauro, Lucrino, and the coastal belt between Baia and Bacoli. Hypocenters are generally shallow, within 3 km; only toward Baia\u2013Bacoli can they be slightly deeper, presumably due to a lower geothermal gradient in that area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The picture that emerges is that of a system that has slowed its pace, but the unrest (imbalance) is still ongoing. The equilibrium observed in recent times is only apparent: geochemistry does not show signs of reversal, and deformation and seismicity continue to modulate the caldera\u2019s internal energy. Beneath Campi Flegrei, the ground continues to breathe\u2014more slowly, and we hope this may be the precursor to a more lasting and effective reversal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"